About a month ago, the United States and Israel started an unprovoked war against Iran. As much as I'm glad that most of the Iranian leadership is gone. But was it worth the cost? What will happen to cruising, as well as what will happen to the 6 ships stuck on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz?
As I see things, the price of oil will skyrocket to $180 from its former price of $60 due to this war. The US President is a pathological liar, a person who can easily contradict himself in mid-sentence. He has said that the US has won the war, yet asks other nations to help him win it. The uncertainty caused by this leader suffering with dementia can not be measured. At least 13 American service members have come home in body bags, and another 130+ have been wounded in this war. And there is no end in sight.
Our president is a person who will not back down from a position - even when the position can not logically be maintained. So he moved forward with a war that the Israelis wanted to start, and claimed it was his idea. One problem - he didn't think of all of the consequences the war would bring.
And that gets us to where we are today. What will happen next?
First, with 20% of the world's oil supply stuck inside the strait, the price of oil will rise. Unlike air fares, cruise fares have a clause which allows the cruise line to apply fuel surcharges to fully paid tickets. One Asian cruise line has just added an $25.50/day/person surcharge for its cruises boarding in Hong Kong. I expect that surcharges will start appearing for most cruises over the next few months, as there is no defined end state for the war, and no reason for Iran to let up on attacking American interests around the globe.
Next, expect to see stricter security around cruise ships. This shouldn't be much of a problem, but one never knows how this might play out. Will cruise ships be targeted due the large number of Americans who enjoy this form of resort like vacation? Once American troops land on Iranian soil (as I expect within the month), all bets are off regarding Iran's war tactics.
We've already seen cruise ports in the Persian Gulf shut down. The 6 ships stuck there will likely be a warning for future cruise planners to avoid these ports. New itineraries for ships outside the gulf will get drawn up. The Middle-East will likely become a no-go zone for years to come. This also means that "World Cruises" will likely sail around Africa, than to sail through the Suez Canal.
But what will happen outside the Middle-East? This is the great unknown. I expect that cruise lines will reduce their dependence on ports capable of holding a large number of cruise ships in port at one time. Terrorism has affected cruising before, and it will likely do so again. If history doesn't repeat but simply echoes itself, then what will likely happen next? As I see it, one will likely be the safest in ports where a single ship can make port at one time. Philadelphia is one of these ports. Additionally, if a port area can only handle 1 ship at a time in geographically separated piers (New York City's 3 regional cruise terminals come to mind), one may have the same benefits of a port like Philadelphia. But the ports where I'd feel the least safe are those like Nassau, Bahamas, where 6 cruise ships can be in port at one time.
So, what do you think will happen? As for me, I'll still go one the cruises I planned on, but I'll be a little more careful than usual. By the time I get on my next cruise, I hope that I won't have to pay a fuel surcharge. Additionally, I hope that this war ends by the end of summer, so that late summer cruising isn't affected by fuel surcharges. Expect to see more sea days baked into cruise itineraries, as a ship is safest when far away from port, as well as being most profitable due to onboard ship spending.










































































































































